Some mornings under the window in my bedroom, nightmares of nuclear holocaust would awaken me to staring blinded at the new sun in the window. I would know that I was awake, but the dreams were so fresh that the contrast in light from closed eyes to morning sun would convince me that the bombing had begun and I was just a microsecond from being crisply well-done.
Those heartbeats of fear before realization are nothing like the doom that lingers over me these days of war over oil.
We are a nation of 300 million people in a world of 6 billion and we use 25% of the oil produced on the planet. Our cars consume it like we consume oxygen, and our way of life revolves around being free - not just to speak our minds, but to travel wherever we like. Imagine the changes in our social structure in the case of a major change in price of crude oil, and what small catalysts are already in play that could cause this change.
The oil-rich lands of Saudi Arabia feed our country with highly-sought crude. The country is nearly in a state of rebellion, as assassins attempt to murder the Saudi royal family. The abuses of the Saudi nation of its people are well-known and ignored by our government, as long as the oil continues to flow.
Oil workers in Saudi Arabia have been reasonably content for years with the political situation in Saudi Arabia, because the Saudi police - effectively in the hands of the royal family - were keeping control of the people. Now, they are becoming more skiddish in manning their wells because the police are becoming complicit in these assassination attempts. Assuming that a full-scale rebellion takes place, we could lose our oil wells in Saudi Arabia entirely.
A smart indicator of our government’s foresight of the potential for this disaster would be an increased presence of US troops in the Arabian peninsula. There is not an increased military presence in Saudi Arabia currently. However, there is a huge US military presence very close by – In Iraq.
Even if Saudi Arabia doesn’t explode in civil war, today’s crude oil barrel prices are the highest they’ve been since the first Gulf war, $44. Economists estimate that barrel prices that exceed $50 are no longer the stuff of conspiratorial hyperbole. Assuming that oil prices continue to climb and the situation never improves enough for them to stop, we could end up with gasoline prices that rival Europe, $5 per gallon. A 20-gallon tank would cost $100 to fill. You will be able to measure the cost of a trip to the grocery store in dollars.
As gas prices get more expensive, fewer people will be able to afford to drive. The poor may have no way to get to work if they can’t afford to fuel their cars. Public transportation costs could double. Every delivered consumer good would cost more. The implications of increased delivered consumer goods prices are astounding.
Imagine - You can’t afford or don’t want to waste the money to drive to a store. Other people feel similarly and stay home. The cost to the store of their merchandise increases because of increased delivery charges from higher fuel prices. Demand at the store decreases because people don’t want their goods. The store has no business and closes.
This isn’t just the mall. This is any store. Grocery stores may have difficulty obtaining the grand supply of goods that they currently enjoy, at least at the prices that common folk can currently afford. Because people don’t go out any more the social climate will change.
People won’t take casual drives to visit distant relatives. Flights will become infrequent and quite expensive, not just due to the fuel costs (the price increase as a result of which would instigate the initial loss in customers) but due to the increased prices the airlines would need to remain operational with fewer clientelle. Major manufacturing (airlines, construction, etc.) all slow down or stop because nobody is going anywhere.
Imagine the streets vacant.
What have we done to prevent this? What can the government yet do to protect us? Well, nothing.
Government subsidies are not feasible. It is not feasible to allow the government to subsidize oil purchases because either way, we’ll be paying for the gas. We currently don’t pay an inordinate tax on gasoline, so any money applied to keep gas prices low would be new. Sure, the tax would apply to even non-drivers, so you won’t pay as much for gas as you might have in total, but you’re still going to complain. And the guy who still can’t afford gas is going to complain that he has to pay this new gas tax, whether he sees the benefit in being able to buy milk at the supermarket is an issue on which he would have to be educated.
There are so many different models of car on the road today. How many of them are fuel efficient or don’t just operate off of pure gas power? Three models provide fuel efficiency of 45-50 miles per gallon. Three.
Soon enough we’ll all be plugging in our cars, right? Not really. It actually costs more to charge a car to the same performance level as it gets with gas than the gas costs. If more people place more demand on electricity because gas prices are bad, we’ll have an increase in price in electricity, too. This will be similar to the increase in natural gas, when everyone switched to natural gas because oil was too high, and now natural gas is expensive because the demand is high.
“This isn’t going to happen in my lifetime,” you say. Think again. All it takes is one well-placed bomb. All it takes is one crazed fundamentalist. All it takes is one rumor on the stock exchange floor. All it takes is another Bush term on rampage across the Arabian Peninsula. All it takes is another fuel-slurping Hummer on the road.
Start growing hemp. I hear you can make car fuel from that.
